Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 2.
- A large upward revision in average hourly earnings punches a hole in the narrative that wage growth remains lackluster.
- The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in January, but that appeared to have more to do with a big jump in the labor force estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Monthly payroll numbers like these not only show the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders today, it could be running a bit too hot.
- The bond market is finally changing its tune on the inflation outlook.
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Black Friday, the cornerstone of the domestic retail calendar, has amalgamated into a black weekend, Thursday night, or even an online experience that allows consumers to avoid the annual pilgrimage to the brick and mortar shopping mall. The question is whether this year’s sales will be bigger, better, and more extravagant than last year or will fickle spenders force stores to reverse course; close earlier, open later, and/or push shoppers to seek online deals.Read More ›
Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.Read More ›
Yes, the U.S. economy’s growth has been suppressed compared to historical data, but that may end up being a silver lining.Read More ›
The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.Read More ›