All Posts Tagged: unemployment

U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.But will it be enough to distract investors from the near-term political risks coming from Washington?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Aug. 25.

Key observations:

  • Job growth is sufficiently strong that the U.S. unemployment rate could drop again to an expansion low of 4.2% in August.
  • Many FOMC members could see this as a reason to stick with the plan of one more rate hike before end of the year, despite inflation holding below their targets.
  • For Q2 GDP, we are forecasting an upward revision of the initial 2.6% growth rate to an even stronger 2.9% annualized pace.
  • The U.S. consumer is back in the driver’s seat when it comes to U.S. economic performance.

 

Click here to read my full report.

 

Read More ›

Investment Insights: The odds of a 2019 recession

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Silhouette of a business man watching red and yellow trend arrows going downward to the right, with a cloudy sky visible in the background.

Yes, the U.S. economy’s growth has been suppressed compared to historical data, but that may end up being a silver lining.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: ‘Doves cry’ in the aftermath of the June FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup on the eagle sculpture near top of the Federal Reserve building in Washington.

The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Fingers crossed, we need a bounce in GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing drop in G10 Surprise Economic INdex

The second estimate for Q1 GDP growth didn’t do much to alter the original view that the U.S. economy got off to a rough start this year.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

Read More ›