All Posts Tagged: unemployment

U.S. Outlook: Is this still a Goldilocks expansion?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Jobs creation accelerated as 2018 got underway, with 200K net new jobs created last month.

Graph showing rise in hourly earnings (percentages) per month.This was well above consensus expectations of 180K jobs. The payroll report also contained a big surprise on hourly earnings data.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 2.

Key observations:

  • A large upward revision in average hourly earnings punches a hole in the narrative that wage growth remains lackluster.
  • The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in January, but that appeared to have more to do with a big jump in the labor force estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Monthly payroll numbers like these not only show the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders today, it could be running a bit too hot.
  • The bond market is finally changing its tune on the inflation outlook.

 

Read my full report.

 

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Investment Insights: Gray Friday?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
A woman looking at her phone, while shopping

Black Friday, the cornerstone of the domestic retail calendar, has amalgamated into a black weekend, Thursday night, or even an online experience that allows consumers to avoid the annual pilgrimage to the brick and mortar shopping mall. The question is whether this year’s sales will be bigger, better, and more extravagant than last year or will fickle spenders force stores to reverse course; close earlier, open later, and/or push shoppers to seek online deals.

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U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

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Investment Insights: The odds of a 2019 recession

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Silhouette of a business man watching red and yellow trend arrows going downward to the right, with a cloudy sky visible in the background.

Yes, the U.S. economy’s growth has been suppressed compared to historical data, but that may end up being a silver lining.

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Instant Analysis: ‘Doves cry’ in the aftermath of the June FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup on the eagle sculpture near top of the Federal Reserve building in Washington.

The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.

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