All Posts Tagged: wage growth
The payroll report for November appears to confirm the recent market narrative, and our own economic forecast, that U.S. economic growth is decelerating in the fourth quarter.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Dec. 7.Key observations:
- U.S. job growth had been averaging over 200K jobs per month so far this year, but the three-month average monthly gain has now slipped to 170K jobs.
- Initial jobless claims have been rising gradually now since hitting a cyclical low on Sept. 14.
- The monthly pace of job gains is still well above the Fed’s estimates that only 60K to 100K jobs per month are needed today to hold the U.S. unemployment rate steady.
- It is unlikely that today’s payroll report will deter the FOMC from hiking the fed funds rate again in December. And I still think it’s too early to rule out two more rate hikes from the Fed next year.
Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.Read More ›
The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.Read More ›
Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.Read More ›
Average personal income growth for all states was up 4.4% in 2015, with the Western and Southeastern states showing the strongest percentage gains in personal income.Read More ›