Nonfarm payroll growth slipped to 157K in July, the slowest pace of monthly job gains since March.
Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on August 3.Key observations:
- If job gains continue near the current pace, the U.S. unemployment rate will continue to move lower over the coming months.
- We are forecasting the U.S. unemployment rate will average 3.6% by the fourth quarter of next year.
- There is no sign in the July jobs data that the trade war is negatively impacting the U.S. job growth engine.
- Despite falling short of consensus estimates on headline job creation last month, this is in way a weak labor market or even a weakening labor market.
The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.Read More ›
Overall this was a solid payroll report that reinforces the notion that the U.S. labor market remains a bright spot for the U.S. economic expansion.Read More ›
Average personal income growth for all states was up 4.4% in 2015, with the Western and Southeastern states showing the strongest percentage gains in personal income.Read More ›
The U.S. employment report for March was another piece of positive economic news.Read More ›