All Posts Tagged: wages

U.S. Outlook: Don’t let the headline fool you; job engine is intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Hurricane Florence muddied the waters of the September payroll report.

Business people on a break in a glass covered space.However, the U.S. labor market managed to reveal its underlying strength and resilience despite the miss on the headline jobs number.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Oct. 5.

Key observations:
  • The U.S. economy has added over 200K jobs per month over first three quarters of 2018.
  • The last time the U.S. economy managed that feat was way back in 2105, when the unemployment rate was much higher than it is today (over 5%).
  • The year-on-year wage growth rate failed to accelerate, slipping back to 2.8% from 2.9% in August.
  • The report increases the odds the Fed will raise the fed funds rate two more times next year.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Teacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetables

The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions.

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U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

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U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

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U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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