All Posts Tagged: wages

U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

outside shoppers in San FranciscoHow does this expansion stack up against the longest on record, and how long will it last?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 8.

Key observations:

  • The current expansion, at 108 month long and running, is the second longest in history going back to 1854, trailing only the 1991-2001 expansion.
  • Sharp downturns in GDP are sometimes followed by strong and rapid recoveries, but debt-driven recessions, like the Great Recession, can take longer to fully recover from.
  • Income growth during the current expansion has remained tepid compared to past expansions.
  • In our view, this expansion is likely to last for at least six more quarters, partly due to the tax cuts that were enacted late last year.

 

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

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U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activity

We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.

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Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

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