All Posts Tagged: wages

U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

If you merely glanced at the February jobs gain (313K), you would be forgiven for concluding the U.S. labor market is on fire and the economy is in danger of overheating and burning to the ground.

Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 9.

Key observations:

  • This was the strongest monthly gain in nonfarm payrolls since July 2016.
  • Despite sizzling job growth in recent months, signs of an overheating labor market were just not there.
  • Average hourly earnings increased only 0.1% in February, and the year-on-year gain slipped to 2.6% from a downwardly revised 2.8% gain in January.
  • The February jobs report makes another Fed funds rate hike in March a near certainty, in my opinion.

 

Read my full report.

 

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activity

We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.

Read More ›

Instant Analysis: Jobs report for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy office setting with several well-dressed stock traders checking activity on their computer terminals.

The labor market continues to firm but is not yet at the overheating stage.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Growth without inflation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing long decline in initial jobless claims.

Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: A hot jobs report for April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing unemployment rate and U6 unemployment rate dipping back to May 2007 levels.

The labor market’s resilience and strength were on full display in April.

Read More ›