All Posts Tagged: wages

U.S. Outlook: The wage growth conundrum

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Wage growth has been modest during the current economic expansion, despite healthy job growth that has resulted in a tight labor market.

TTeacher Helping Students Training To Work In Catering Chopping Vegetableshis has puzzled economists and policy makers.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on July 13.

Key observations:
  • The moderate pace of wage growth since the end of the Great Recession is unusual compared to previous expansions, when wage growth rebounded more rapidly and sharply.
  • Theories for the weak wage growth range from outsourcing to a lack of productivity growth to the presence of shadow slack in the labor market.
  • Given the recent rise in nominal wage rigidities over the past three months through March (the latest data point available), it is unlikely that wage growth will accelerate dramatically in 2019 if this long-term historic relationship holds.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Happy anniversary, Great Recession expansion!

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
outside shoppers in San Francisco

The current economic expansion turned nine years old this month.

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U.S. Outlook: A Goldilocks payroll report in April

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Modern, busy office with several people at desks, as young woman rushes by in a blur.

Net new job creation is cooling off.

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U.S. Outlook: Blowout job creation, but wages fail to launch

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Crowded crosswalk full of morning professionals walking to work as the sun shines through the crowd.

February’s jobs gain is more than three times the pace the Fed believes is necessary on a monthly basis to keep the unemployment rate steady.

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U.S. Outlook: What does 2018 have in store for us?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rebound of Eurozone economic activity

We think 2018 will be another year of above-average U.S. GDP growth.

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